Book Review: The Signal and the Noise

Supposedly Nate Silver’s credibility took a major hit last November, which will no doubt discourage many potential readers of his book. This interpretation is wrong, but palatable, because the sorts of commentators who would come to such conclusions shouldn’t be trusted with it. This book is about how to be more intelligent when making predictions and be wrong less often. Such an attitude is not common—most “predictions” are political pot-shots or, as discussed previously, avaricious attempts to put the cart before the horse.

Let’s begin with a discussion of a few major tips. Most of these things should be taught in high school civics (how can you responsibly vote without a concept of base rates?!), but aren’t. Perhaps the most important thing is to limit the number of predictions made, so you can easily come back and score them. Calibration is recommended—nine out of ten predictions made with 90% confidence should come true.

Political pundits are terrible about these sorts of things. Meteorologists are actually great at it. Now your local weatherman is regularly wrong, but the National Weather Service makes almost perfectly calibrated forecasts1. This is, in part, because their models are under constant refinement, always seeking more accuracy. And it pays off: NWS predictions have improved drastically over the last few decades, due to improved models, more data collection, and faster computers. But more on that later.

Local meteorologists, on the other hand, are incentivized to make outlandish forecasts which drive viewership (and erode trust in their profession). One might see this as evidence that public entities make better predictions than private ones, but we quickly see that that is no panacea when we turn to seismology and epidemiology.

Part of the problem, in those fields, is that government and university researchers are under considerable pressure from their employers to develop new models which will enable them to predict disasters. This is a reasonable enough desire, but a desire alone does not a solution make. We can quite easily make statistical statements about approximately how frequently certain locations will experience earthquakes, for instance. But attempts beyond a simple logarithmic regression have so far been fruitless, not just failing to predict major earthquakes but specifically prediction that some of the most destructive earthquakes in recent memory would not occur.

Silver’s primary case study in this comes from the planning for Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant. When engineers were designing it in the 1960s, it was necessary to extrapolate what sort of earthquake loads it might need to withstand. Fortunately, the sample size of the largest earthquakes is necessarily low. Unfortunately, there was a small dogleg in the data, an oh-so-tempting suggestion that the frequency of extremely large earthquakes was exceedingly low. The standard Gutenberg-Richter model suggests that a 9.0-magnitude earthquake would occur in the area about once every 300 years; the engineers’ adaptation suggested every 13,000. They constructed fantastical rationalizations for their model and a power station able to withstand 8.6. In March of 2011 a 9.0-magnitude earthquake hit the coast of Japan and triggered a tsunami. The rest, as they say, is history.

The problem in seismology comes from overfitting. It is easy, in the absence of hard knowledge, to underestimate the amount of noise in a dataset and end up constructing a model which predicts random outliers. Those data points don’t represent the underlying reality; rather, they are caused by influences outside the particular thing you’re wishing to study (including the imprecision of your instruments).

And it can take awhile to realize that this is the case, if the model is partially correct or if the particular outlier doesn’t appear frequently. An example would be the model developed by Professor David Bowman at California State University-Fullerton in the mid-2000s, which identified high-risk areas, some of which then experienced earthquakes. But the model also indicated that an area which soon thereafter experienced an 8.5 was particularly low-risk. Dr. Bowman had the humility to retire the model and admit to its faults. Many predictors aren’t so honest.

On the other hand, we see overly cautious models. For instance, in January of 1976, Private David Lewis of the US Army died at Fort Dix of H1N1, the same flu virus which caused the Spanish Influenza of 1918. The flu always occurs at military bases in January, after soldiers have been spread across the country for Christmas and New Year’s. The Spanish Influenza had also first cropped up at a military base, and this unexpected reappearance terrified the Center for Disease Control. Many feared an even worse epidemic. President Ford asked Congress to authorize a massive vaccination program at public expense, which passed overwhelmingly.

The epidemic never materialized. No other cases of H1N1 were confirmed anywhere in the country and the normal flu strain which did appear was less intense than usual. We still have no idea how Private Lewis contracted the deadly disease.

Alarmism, however, broke public confidence in government predictions generally and on vaccines particularly. The vaccination rate fell precipitously in the following years, opening the way to more epidemics later on.

Traditionally, this category of error was known as crying wolf. Modern writers have forgotten it and have to be reminded to not do that. Journalists and politicians make dozens if not hundreds of “predictions” each year, few if any of which are scored, in no small part because most of them turn out wrong or even incoherent.

Sadly, the pursuit of truth and popularity are uncorrelated at best. As Mr. Silver has learned, striving for accuracy and against premature conclusions is a great way to get yourself berated2. Forecasting is not the field for those seeking societal validation. If that’s your goal, skipping this book is far better than trying to balance its lessons and the public’s whim.

But let’s suppose you do want to be right. If you do, then this book can help you in that quest, though it is hardly a comprehensive text. You’ll need to study statistics, history, economics, decision theory, differential equations, and plenty more. Forecasting could be an education in its own right (though regrettably is not). The layman, however, can improve vastly by just touching on these subjects.

First and foremost is an understanding of probability, specifically Bayesian statistics. Silver has the courage to show us actual equations, which is more than can be said for many science writers. Do read this chapter.

Steal an example from another book, suppose two taxi companies operate in a particular region, based on color. Blue Taxi has a larger market share. If you think you see a Green Taxi, there’s a small chance that it’s really Blue and you’re mistaken (and a smaller chance if you see Blue, it’s really Green). The market share is the base rate, and you should adjust up or down based on the reasons you might feel uncertain. For instance, if the lighting is poor and you’re far away, your confidence should be lower that if you’re close by at mid-day. Try thinking up a few confounders of your own.

To better develop your Bayesian probability estimate of a given scenario, you need to assess what information you possess and what information you don’t possess. These will be your Known Knowns and Known Unknowns. The final category is Unknown Unknowns, the thing you aren’t aware are even a problem. A big part of rationality is trying to consider previously ignored dangers and trying to mitigate risk from the unforeseen.

This is much easier to do ex post facto. By that point, the signal you need to consider stands out against hundreds you can neglect. Beforehand, though, it’s difficult to determine which is the most important. Often, you’re not even measuring the relevant quantity directly but rather secondary and tertiary effects. Positive interference can create a signal where none exists. Negative interference can reduce clear trends to background noise. There’s a reason signal processing pays so well for electrical engineers.

The applications range from predicting terrorist attacks to not losing your shirt gambling. An entire chapter discusses the Poker Bubble and how stupid players make the game profitable for the much smaller pool of cautious ones. In addition to discussing the mechanics and economics of the gambling, I got a decent explanation of how poker is played. Certainly interesting.

Another chapter tells the story of how Deep Blue beat Gary Kasparov. Entire books have been written on the subject, but Silver gives a good overview of the final tournament and what makes computers so powerful in the first place.

Computers aren’t actually very smart. Their strength comes from solving linear equations very, very quickly. They don’t make the kinds of arithmetic mistakes which humans make, especially when the iterations run into the millions. Chess is a linear game, however, so it was really a matter of time until algorithms could beat humans. There’s certainly a larger layer of complexity and strategy than many simpler games, but it doesn’t take a particularly unique intelligence to look ahead and avoid making mistakes in the heat of the moment.

Furthermore, the stating position of chess is always the same. This is not the case for many other linear systems, let alone nonlinear ones. Nonlinear systems exhibit extreme sensitivity to initial conditions; the weather a classical example. The chapter on meteorology discusses this in detail—we have very good models of how the atmosphere behaves, but because we don’t know every property at every location, we’re stuck making inferences about the air in-between sampling points. Add to this finite computing power, and the NWS can only (only!) predict large-scale weather systems with extreme accuracy a few days ahead.

With more sampling points, more computing capacity, or more time, we could get better predictions, but all of these factors play off one another. This dilemma arises throughout prediction. More research will allow for more accurate results but delays your publication data. (This assumes that the data you need is even available: frequently, it isn’t3.)

Producing useful predictions is not about having the best data or the most computing power (though they certainly help). It is primarily about constraining your anticipation to what the evidence actually implies. Nate Silver lays out several techniques for pursuing this goal, with examples. It’s a good introduction for us laymen; experienced statisticians will probably find little they didn’t already know.

I would not recommend this book, however, unless you’re willing to do the work. Prediction is a difficult skill to master, and those without the humility to accept their inexperience can get into a lot of trouble. Should you want to test your abilities, try doing calibrated predictions and see how accurate you are. Julia Galef has a number of mostly harmless suggestions for trying this out.

If you are serious, however, The Signal and the Noise offers a quality primer on several important rationality techniques, and a good deal of information about a variety of other topics. I found it an enjoyable read and hope Nate Silver writes more books in the future.

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1Major aggregators like the Weather Channel and AccuWeather tend to take the NWS predictions and paste an additional layer of modelling on top of it, for better or for worse.

2In the week before the 2016 election, several liberal commentators accused Mr. Silver of throwing the nation into unwarranted fear for only having Hillary Clinton’s odds of winning at ~70%. As it turns out, his model was one of the most balanced of mainstream predictions, yet everyone then acted as if he had reason to be ashamed for getting it wrong.

3The data may be concealed in confidential documents, nominally available but out of sight, or sitting right under your nose. Most often, however, it’s hiding in the noise. Economic forecasts suffer from this last problem. There’s econometric data everywhere, but basically no one has found more than rudimentary ways to make predictions with it. Perverse incentives complicate matters for private sector analysts, who often then ignore the few semi-reliable indicators we’ve got.

Book Review: Ignition!

Subtitled “An Informal History of Liquid Rocket Propellants”, Ignition! is John D. Clark’s personal account of working with rocket fuels from 1949 until his retirement in 1970.

Dr. Clark is introduced to us by Isaac Asimov. Clark was roommates with L. Sprague de Camp during his undergrad years at Caltech, and wrote a pair of science fiction stories before deciding the market wasn’t for him, though he remained active in the community. Dr. Asimov met him during the war, when he came to work with de Camp and Heinlein at the Philadelphia Naval Yard.

John Clark, like Asimov, was a chemist, working on the problem of chemical rockets for the majority of his career. He writes this book, he tells us, both “for the interested layman” and for:

[T]he professional engineer in the rocket business. For I have discovered that he is frequently abysmally ignorant of the history of his own profession, and, unless forcibly restrained, is almost certain to do something which, as we learned fifteen years ago, is not only stupid but is likely to result in catastrophe.

For the layman, he attempts (and, I think, succeeds) at writing in a manner which is nevertheless very accessible. The sections with heavy technical content can be skimmed over without losing too much of the overall picture, though a little background knowledge certainly helps. I’m not sure you could use this book as a reference without a basic understanding of engineering thermodynamics, but if you haven’t studied that what business do you have designing rocket engines?

Unfortunately, Dr. Clark gives relatively little in the way of citations or suggestions for further reading. This is both an artifact of the era—when technical reports and journal articles were essentially inaccessible to the general public if your local library didn’t have a copy—and a consequence of the fact that much of the source material was at the time still officially classified. At several points the discussion is cut short because he’s not at liberty to discuss the matter. He acknowledges these difficulties and makes not pretense of this being an authoritative textbook.

On a related note, the content is heavily focused on the research done in America and the United Kingdom, with a chapter devoted to what information came out of the Soviet Union in later years. Due to the date of publication, this book does not cover modern developments (though the final chapter makes a series of predictions I might come back and grade).

Nor does Clark address solid propellants or hybrid combinations in any significant detail, which is slightly disappointing given my current studies, but would have made for a much longer and more complicated read. Not that I would have particularly minded; Dr. Clark is an engaging storyteller, frequently giving us various background information on the scientists and organizations trying to develop early rockets, first for abstract research, later for the military, and finally for the National Aeronautics and Space Administration.

These anecdotes keep the reading fun even through the most tedious of minutiae on monoprops and halogen fuels. Clark frequently (if unpredictably) goes into detail on the chemistry of a particular propellant and how the molecules interact with one another. Such interludes eventually rekindled my interest in chemistry as a subject, which is fortunate since I need another credit hour of it to graduate. Hopefully some of the material I learn this summer will be relevant to aerospace propulsion work.

Overall, I found this to be a good introduction to rocket fuels and the history of that field. While useful for beginners such as myself and as a refresher, it probably shouldn’t be treated as any sort of reference guide or definitive citation.

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An engraving by Dr. Clark’s wife, Inga Pratt, presented to NARTS in 1959.

Hopefully one day Ignition! will be in print again, but for now most of us are stuck reading it from PDFs found online. Hard copies went for hundreds of dollars before the likes of Elon Musk and Scott Manley began publicly praising the book.

Book Review: How to Live on Mars

I first read this book in high school, flushed on newly-found philosophy and bristling with plans for life as a commercial astronaut. SpaceX was just ramping up their ISS resupply program; Bigelow Aerospace was planning to launch another module before 2014. The possibilities seemed limitless.

That’s not the world we ended up living in. Astronauts haven’t launched from the United States in over five years. Virgin Galactic experienced LCOV during a 2014 test flight and put space tourism plans on hold while fixing the spacecraft’s control system. The biggest leaps forward has been landing Falcon 9 first stages, but it’s only in the last week that a used stage flew again. Falcon Heavy  still hasn’t been tested flown.

As such, the overall mood of Zubrin’s book feels….overconfident. Misplaced. Premature.

Our narrator is a congenial Martian colonist, giving us the down-low on what it takes to survive on Mars. It’s quite easy, he informs us, provided your follow his advice.

From choosing the correct transfer method to how to start a family, Zubrin (the Martian, not the 20th century astronautical engineer) walks us through the steps of becoming an economic and social success on the red planet. While many of the specifics are tailored to a fictional future history, the basic science is strictly factual.

It ranges from the mundane to the transcendental. At the more everyday end of things, we learn how to make plastics and almost every other raw material from the Martian soil and atmosphere. Through this avatar, Dr. Zubrin is making the case that living on Mars is entirely feasible. Steel and cement for construction, oxygen for breathing, nitrates for food—it’s all there. A few things would be a challenge (fictional Zubrin recommends stealing rocket parts as the best way to obtain aluminum), but the low-gravity environment greatly reduces the difficulty imposed by all sorts of engineering projects.

On the other end of the scale, we’re explained the general process of terraforming Mars into a habitable planet (and how to profit off it in the meantime). Now quite a few of these suggestions rely on a fairly specific potential architecture for the project, but the technical information holds.

This future history is amusing, though evokes a more cynical reaction from me after the last few years. I’m less optimistic about the odds of us reaching Mars before 2040, and less skeptical of NASA’s ability to get things done. To me, the issue seems to be less one of organizational competence and more of insufficient dedication at the highest levels (mostly Congress). While I’d like to believe that the private sector can fill that gap, it seems increasingly unlikely that they can achieve those ends at a plausible cost as the march of 21st century politics continues.

One thing he’ll probably have gotten right: the decay of terrestrial society into atomized, post-modern nihilism. I hope he’ll be proven wrong but there’s no strong signals to suggest that that trend is slowing.

On the whole, though, an optimistic book about the capacity for human ingenuity to conquer new frontiers and expand our understanding of the universe. Those interested in the project of space colonization, but unsure where to begin learning about, would be well advised to start with How to Live on Mars.

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Book Review: Your Inner Fish

This book is not what I expected, but quite pleasurable to read nonetheless. Your Inner Fish does not detail the ichthyologic nature of the human body. Rather, it explores how fish moved onto land, where many now-ubiquitous adaptations came from, and how scientists figured it out.

Dr. Shubin begins with the story we all came to hear: how his team of paleontologists discovered Tiktaalik Roseae. This ancient, shallow-water fish  Tiktaalik is an important transitional fossil because it was one of the first discovered with rudimentary hands. Biologists comparing the limbs of species noticed pattern in the limbs of land animals as far back as the mid-1800s. This patter held only for land-adapted species—reptiles, amphibians, mammals (including aquatic mammals that returned to the seas).

For a long time, it was believed that fish don’t exhibit this pattern. Then lungfish were discovered: living fossils which exemplify, in some ways, the transition from ocean to land. As their name implies, they possess basic lungs, and, interestingly, the beginnings of limbs.

Tiktaalik was an improvement on the lungfish. It had a flat head, for swimming in shallow water, and fin bones that show the beginning of a wrist. Together, we see why fins evolved into arms: shallow water fish needed to do pushups. In their fish-eat-fish world, the ability to push oneself through extra-shallow patches was likely a critical advantage.

Let me tell you, exercising seems a lot less mundane when you consider that your lungfish ancestors did it to survive. That’s what your arms evolved to do. It’s only more recently we found further applications for them.


Throughout this book, Shubin is trying to explain how scientists managed to figure out our evolutionary history. He has perhaps a unique perspective to explain this process, as a paleontologist turned anatomy professor. Knowing what came before helps explain the ways in which earlier species were contorted to become the ones we see today.

Comparative anatomy and the fossil record tell us a lot about how modern species came to be. But genetics also offers considerable insight. Looking at the differences between genomes can tell us a lot about how recently certain categories of features evolved. In many cases, we can take genes from mice or fish and insert them into the DNA of invertebrates like fruit flies and get the same result. Such experiments are strong evidence that features like body plans and eyes evolved a really long time ago.

To be clear, there’s a lot of uncertainty which can probably never be resolved. We can prod algae in tanks to evolve the beginnings of multicellular bonding, but we have no idea if that particular direction is the one that our forerunners took.

Nevertheless, Your Inner Fish gives a good overview of how bacteria became bugs and fish, and how those bugs and fish became the bugs, fish, and people alive today. I certainly came away with an improved picture of how weird our bodies are and their many imperfections, though far from the whole picture. My curious is fairly sated, however—I’ve no plans to read the kinds of human anatomy texts I would need to really appreciate the magnitude of making men from microbes.

All told, I’d recommend Your Inner Fish as an entertaining and informative read about how human beings came to be. Neil Shubin has packed a lot of interesting scientific research into it, and with the exception of an example about hypothetical clown people in the final chapter, does a pretty good job of explaining it clearly. Definitely worth your time if the history of life on Earth intrigues you.

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Book Review: All The Birds In The Sky

[Note: I read this book on the recommendation of my now ex-girlfriend, and I can confidently say that that affected my reaction to the novel. Consider that as you will.]

I have mixed feelings about this one.

On the positive side, the writing is pretty good. I was sufficiently engaged to keep reading, even when I wanted to sit down the characters and lecture them about their life choices. For the most part, the plot was coherent and didn’t tend to lose me.

But those characters. My opinion of them turned negative in the first few chapters and never really recovered. Once the plot got rolling my feelings ended up relatively neutral, which is….less than one would hope for, given such explicit protagonists. The building action felt kind of drawn out, so this non-negative period was somewhat protracted.

One could justify such extended exposition in the service of extensive worldbuilding, but we don’t really get that. I spent a good part of the book wondering about the details of the disasters unfolding out-of-frame and the magical world Patricia disappeared into. We get a pseudo-explanation of the latter in the final chapter, but the resolution felt pretty forced and didn’t clear up very many loose ends. The denouement was about two pages.

Maybe there’s going to be a sequel that explores these things further. The book only came out this year, so who knows.

However, this frustration helped me realize something about myself: the reason I can’t write fiction is that I’m far more interested in building up a world than any story that could be set within it. Maybe I should team up with a plotmeister who wants to break into sci-fi. Contact me if you’re interested.

At this point it should be clear, dear reader, that I’m not exactly qualified to comment on the writing of science fiction novels, but in the spirit of the characters, I’m going to offer some recommendations anyway.

Firstly, if major plot issues could be resolved by better communication between the characters, it’s nice to give readers a reason why the characters aren’t having those much-needed conversations. Yes, it is possible that no one thinks to ask. But our protagonists are a genius and a literal witch (whose main character flaw is caring too much). I have questions if nothing else. Like, maybe I’m unusually inquisitive but Laurence seemed strangely accepting that actual for-real magic has suddenly appeared in his life.

Speaking of magic, there was a weird theme of techies-can’t-into-ethics running through the book which doesn’t really make sense in context (the book, or the real world). At one point, Patricia is chastising Laurence’s worldview for thinking that saving humanity is more important than saving the entire biosphere, a mere stretch goal for the story’s counterfactual SpaceX.

Patricia, you can talk to animals. You can heal HIV with a single touch. You can cut deals with space-time itself. Ordinary humans are playing an entirely different game.

This gets back into the communication thing. Convinced a team of mad scientists prodigious engineers are about to destroy the world? Have you tried talking to them about the risks involved?

Not that tech-types are liable to destroy the world, seeing as they’re some of the only people I’m aware of with any serious interest in solving morality, out of concerns that an artificial intelligence needs a coherent ethical system before we turn it on. Nick Bostrom calls this problem philosophy with a deadline. You can dismiss this claim if you want, I can’t stop you, but when one of the characters is an AI, then it’s, well, weird.

To be fair, it was awakened to consciousness and gets a lot of early training from Patricia, so talking to witches might be a good AI safety strategy. Shame MIRI can’t try that.

What was I talking about? Oh, right, YA near-future apocalyptic meets urban fantasy novel. Does it count as Young Adult when there’s a moderately explicit sex scene? I don’t remember if they covered that at WorldCon.

My final recommendation has to do with character development. Namely, if you go through great lengths to make a villain sympathetic, do give them some sort of redemption arc. We’re given a front-row seat to a cold-blooded assassin developing a conscience in the halls of an unsettlingly exaggerated portrayal of middle-school misery, and then—anti-climax. His scheme is foiled and his later appearances show few signs of further development. He’s still harking on the same MacGuffin, which we haven’t exactly forgotten about. So I’m not really sure what he’s doing here.

And it’s not that Anders is just bad at character re-introduction, because she does a pretty good job with several other reintroductions between sections. So I’m not sure what’s going on with him in particular. Perhaps it’s a touch of genre-bending realism.

So is All the Birds in the Sky worth recommending to the young adult reader in your life? As with so many things in life, that depends. Looking for some light entertainment? Go for it. Want a thought-provoking novel? There are better books out there. Expecting a well-developed science fantasy world? You might be disappointed.

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Book Review: Guns, Germs, and Steel

For many years, I did not expect to like this book.

Jared Diamond has something of a reputation for primitivism—arguing that hunter-gatherer societies are actually better off than our own. I found this position abhorrent as an Objectivist and wanted to hear nothing of it.

Then, around a year ago, educational YouTuber C.G.P. Grey made a pair of videos* summarizing certain aspects of Diamond’s book. The theory, as presented there, made a lot of sense and piqued my interest. A few months later I purchased a copy of Guns, Germs, and Steel from my local Half Price Books and eventually got around to reading it.

It turned out to be really good.

First of all, Diamond’s position on agricultural civilization is much more considered than many give him credit for. In the course of his anthropological research he’s spent many months living with modern hunter-gatherer societies, experiencing that sort of existence first-hand. Diamond says that his “own impression, from having divided my life between United States cities and New Guinea villages, is that the so-called blessing of civilization are mixed.” He goes on to discuss the various benefits that extremely low-tech societies realize: better family ties, richer social life, and considerably more free time.

His argument, then, is less that industrial civilization is necessarily bad, so much as that it comes with trade-offs. These trade-offs were far more salient for pre-Renaissance agricultural societies, for whom producing enough food to survive took nearly all available resources, and which were subsequently ravaged by war, disease, and famine on a level which pre-agricultural peoples almost never experienced.

But if the hunter-gatherer lifestyle is so great, why didn’t it stick around? The answer is simple enough: agricultural societies out-competed them. Farming allows a much larger population to subsist on the same land, and additionally allows for the development of professions—specialists not directly involved with food production. With a few exceptions, agricultural societies assimilated, displaced, outbred, or simply exterminated their less advanced neighbors.

So why did certain agricultural societies get an upper hand on the others? This is the real question of Diamond’s book.

His answer comes down to one word: geography. The orientation of the continents, the climate at various locations, and similar factors dictated what early humans had available to work with. The Americas and Africa, on their North-South axes, were at a significant disadvantage compared to Eurasia’s East-West axis. Plants and animals spread over a much wider area, increasing the odds that a human population would have the opportunity to domesticate them.

Thus the Americas and Africa ended up with a much slower diffusion of agriculture. (Australia had it even worse.) While industrial civilization might have developed there, it would have been much later. Eurasian colonization cut such trajectories short.

Diamond rejects the notion that certain peoples’ inherent superiority was the fundamental driver of historical progress. Over the course of millennia, cultural and genetic mutation would have been sufficient to make such factors irrelevant. Societies which disregard the advantages of any particular technology don’t tend to stick around very long. Thus human cultures tend to be near the full potential set by their geographic conditions.

We can observe this through natural experiments, the colonization of Polynesia in the last 2,000 years being a prime example. Austronesians, expanding out of Formosa, landed on nearly every Pacific island, and settled pretty much any scrap of land that can support human populations. These ranged from proto-empires in Hawaii and Fiji, to hunter-gatherers on the cold southern Chathams, which were conquered by New Zealand Maoris wielding European firearms in 1835. It also includes tiny Anuta, which despite a population of less than 200 realized an extremely high population density through advanced agriculture.

In a similar manner, Diamond explores the development of African, American Australian, Chinese, and European cultures in the context of geographic determinism. Of particular note is the impact of states on technology. China, a single political unit, abandoned oceanic exploration due to internal factionalism, and never expended the capital costs necessary to resume. Europe, alternatively, was never truly unified, and so never stopped exploration altogether.

Several chapters are devoted specifically to literacy, technology, and political theory. I think a few of my libertarian friends would find them quite interesting, particularly those concerned with what a stateless society might look like. Also noteworthy are the discussions of cultures which had and lost technology—writing being one example, Roman concrete being another. This obviously does not read as a conservative book, but the more intellectual breed of rightists will find something worth considering in Part Three.

Altogether, I found Diamond’s theory intelligent and well-argued. He does not pretend that it’s perfect. His epilogue is an exhortation for more serious study—history as a science, as he call it. Nearly thirty pages are devoted to suggested further readings. Find a coy, apply a light dose of skepticism, and enjoy.

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*The first of these is Americapox: The Missing Plague, which discusses why European diseases were so devastating to Native Americans, but not vice versa. The second is Zebras vs Horses: Animal Domestication, which digs deeper into the causes at play. Disease is only one of the proximate factors Diamond discusses, and I’ve mostly chosen to omit it from my review because Grey explains far better than I could.

Book Review: House of Leaves

House of Leaves is a book for readers who enjoy frame stories. By my count, there’s approximately seven layers of framing to the actual plot. Each layer carries its own story, whether implicit or explicit.

The physical book in our hands is presented as a compiled text, given to the some sort of publisher by general riffraff Johnny Truant, who obtained it from a blind man named Zampanò after the latter’s death. Zampanò’s manuscript is presented as an academic paper reviewing the literature surrounds a documentary recorded by Pulitzer-winning photographer David Navidson. The Navidson Record, as the tape is called, details the story of when Navidson and his family moved into a Virginia house that’s bigger on the inside.

That doesn’t sound so bad, you say. So why did I call it cosmic horror in my Atlas Shrugged review? Let’s get into that.

Our first indication comes from Johnny Truant’s introduction, which essentially functions as a x-page infohazard warning. Johnny believes this book destroyed his life, and seeing his story unfold across dozens of multi-page footnotes, he’s not entirely wrong. Johnny is really too intelligent for his lifestyle of alcohol, drugs, and casual sex in late-90s Los Angeles. He works in a tattoo parlor, despite having no tattoos himself. It would be easy to write him off as another nobody, but his vocabulary and insight betray this as the product of an extremely troubled upbringing.

Johnny’s mother was institutionalized when Johnny was very young, after trying to murder her only son. His father died and the next several years were spent in foster homes, often with abusive foster-parents. He ran away during his teenage years, wondered around Europe writing poetry for awhile, and somehow ended up in LA.

During late-night excapades with a genuine underachiever, Lude, led to finding Zampanò’s manuscript after the old man passed away. A collection of papers and notes, the book is hardly publishable. Intrigued, Johnny takes the pile back to his apartment and begin reading.

Slowly, he comes unhinged.


The house does not show its true self at first. It begin by creating a closet between bedrooms that were previously unconnected, piquing Navidson’s curiosity. Despite measuring again and again, it would seem that the house is ¼ inch longer on the inside than out. The mystery spirals, as more and more precise instruments wielded by professionals confirm the discrepancy.

Then a hallway appears leading off the living room, which never existed there before. At first it leads to a cold, dark, dead-end, but as time goes on, new rooms appear and change. Several professional outdoorsmen are brought to the house on Ash Tree Lane to explore this curiosity.

We learn from his footnotes that this story of unstable space is driving Johnny Truant mad. His ability to function slowly implods around him. He starts to think some sort of beast or minotaur is after him.

The exploration of Navidson’s house tears his family apart and reveals a mystery that only grows deeper—quite literally. As Zampano gives us his pseudo-academic analysis of the documentary’s contents, we learn that the house is damaging to the psyche of most occupants throughout the property’s troubled history. Navidson is special, we learn, in that he has the artistic fortitude to force himself into understanding it. He and his partner Karen are perhaps the only people to confront the house head-on. But I shouldn’t spoil everything.


As I said, this is a book about layers. The veracity of a statement, at each level, is to be questioned. Particularly those related to Johnny Truant. It’s no mistake that an extended appendix is dedicated to him. (Do read all the appendices—there’s a lot of good information in them). The Navidson Record is part of why this book fascinated me, but Johnny Truant is another part. His story is just as important—don’t overlook him. His narration is unreliable but valuable.

Plenty of others have said this, but for House of Leaves, it really pays to buy a physical copy. Contextual storytelling plays a major role in getting the plot’s emotionalism across. This includes many places where the text skips back and forth between pages or runs at unconventional angles. Sometimes it does both at once. These are artefacts of both Zampanò’s incomplete manuscript, and Danielewski’s illustration.

I’m honestly just impressed that one person was able to construct such a complicated story, coherently, and without losing the reader. I would recommend it to anyone who enjoys science fictional, cosmic horror, mystery puzzle novels. Or something like that. Categorizing House of Leaves into a single genre would be a difficult task. Thankfully, we don’t have to. Just like the house, the real world is nebulous and infirm.

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